With just under three months until kickoff, the 2026 International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) Men’s World Cup is entering its final stretch under conditions that feel anything but celebratory. Set to take place across the United States, Mexico, and Canada, the soccer community is dealing with an intense rise in geopolitical turbulence that is reshaping the event before a ball can even be kicked.
The most immediate situation is Iran’s potential withdrawal from the tournament, a crisis that escalated following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. Iranian Minister of Sport and Youth Ahmad Donyamali has stated unequivocally that there are “[n]o conditions under which we can participate in the World Cup,” citing safety concerns and political outrage over the death of their leader. This sentiment has echoed across Iranian leadership and the uncertainty of their participation might force FIFA to consider contingency plans, such as replacing the Iranian team with another, like Iraq or the United Arab Emirates.
With the recent events of the Asian Cup in Australia, where members of Iran’s women’s soccer team claimed asylum fearing persecution back home, the possibility of the men’s team participating in the World Cup seems slim, not to mention the travel bans set by the U.S. that affect multiple participating nations. Supporter groups from countries, primarily in the African continent, will be unable to enter the U.S. to support their teams. For a tournament built on global fan culture, the absence of these supporters undermines the inclusive spirit that FIFA espouses.
In addition to travel restrictions, there is the lack of funding to the 11 American cities that are hosting matches. Although $625 million were set aside by Congress to help set up the cities for the incoming fans, not a single city has received any money yet, and they will have to cancel events that were planned in conjunction with the World Cup if funding is not allocated. Another issue that the World Cup faces is the lack of revenue due to lower attendance and higher ticket prices. While the majority of FIFA’s revenue comes from broadcasting rights, local economic activity within the host cities could be greatly diminished because of the great number of logistical barriers for fans seeking to attend the matches.
Meanwhile, Mexico is facing its own challenges, with the rise in cartel-related violence sparking major concerns over fan safety and the security of the event as a whole. The logistical complexity of a 48-team, tri-national tournament, including the coordination of fan festivals, transportation, and stadium operations, has been elevated to a whole new level.
From my perspective, the 2026 World Cup is becoming an extremely important test case for FIFA’s long standing claim that “football is above politics.” The actual truth is that soccer has never been separate from global power struggles — Russia in 2022, Yugoslavia in 1994, and South Africa from 1970 to 1990 were all excluded from prior World Cups — but that, so far, soccer has been resilient enough to carry on despite the difficulties. This year, that resilience is going to be tested more than ever. What remains to be seen is if the tournament can persist to once more become a symbol of global unity or just another casualty of global conflict. The world is watching.
